2025 Canadian Election Odds: Liberals Odds-On For April Election Win

The Canadian election takes place on Monday and while betting sites are forecasting a huge win for the Liberal Party, there are signs this remarkable race may be hosting up.

The Liberals are no bigger than -561 to win the federal election, odds which were unimaginable when Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Prime Minister in January after nine years in power. 

At that point, the Conservatives held a 20-plus point lead in the opinion polls and when the election betting markets opened on political betting sites, the expectation was the Tories would secure a huge majority.

However, the markets and opinion polls were turned upside down, thanks to a combination of Carney's victory in the Liberal's leadership race, the unpopular Trudeau bowing out and the Conservative's perceived soft stance on US President Donald Trump and his trade war.

Having been split on who would win the 2025 Canadian election at the end of March, the sportsbooks are now predicting the Liberals will form a majority government.

But there may still be a twist in the tale with the gap between the Liberals and Tories having narrowed in recent days to five points, while FanDuel are reporting 70% of all bets on the election have been placed on a Conservative win.

2025 Canadian Election Odds

Established and new betting sites alike had been forecasting a landslide win for the Conservative Party.

However, ever since Donald Trump's inauguration, opinion polls and, subsequently, the betting markets have altered dramatically due to the Conservatives' perceived fondness for Trump, who has instigated a trade war between the neighbours and openly discussed making Canada the USA's 51st state.

Conservative Party Betting Odds

Having been -1600 to win the election in January, the Conservatives can now be backed at +429 on some political betting sites, including Pinnacle, with leader Pierre Poilievre's numbers having nose-dived.

Poilievre, a populist who has borrowed from the Trump playbook for an election that's been dubbed the Maple Leaf vs MAGA, held a 23-point lead in the polls at the start of the year, having tapped into the resentment among Canadians at the cost of living concerns and environmental taxes.

That lead has long gone and with 50% of Canadian voters making the Canada-US trade war one of their top priorities, it's understandable why they want seasoned economist Carney, not Poilievre, to negotiate with Trump.

But in this most unpredictable of federal elections, it would be wrong to dismiss Poilievre's chances entirely and he has seen an upswing in support recently, cutting Carney's advantage in opinion polls on who Canadians would like to see as prime minister from 11 points to nine.

Nanos Research also suggests the Tories have made inroads on the Liberals' lead in national opinion polls with the gap between the leading parties the smallest it's been since they began tracking the numbers, while Innovative Research's latest report says the two parties are neck-and-neck now.

Liberal Party Betting Odds

The Liberal Party have flipped the Canadian election betting markets on their head. Having been +1600 to win the election in January, they are now down to a best price of -563.

The Tories' stance on Trump is one reason for the shift, but the other is the departure of Trudeau, who had become deeply unpopular among his own party.

When Trudeau announced he would be resigning, Carney was quickly installed as the favorite to replace him.

Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor, has been serving as a special economic adviser to Trudeau, but has never held a public office.

However, he's done a good job rallying supporters to his cause with his strong reaction to Trump's suggestions that Canada could potentially be annexed.

Carney's economic background is also viewed as a major positive for tackling Canada's cost of living crisis and his experience is what the party have been sorely lacking in recent years.

Despite the Libverals' lead in the opinion polls having narrowed in recent days, they still hold a bigger advantage than they had entering the last two federal elections.

New Democratic Party Betting Odds

The Liberals have been picking up supporters from several different parties, but none more so than the New Democratic Party, who have seen their numbers in the polls crash nearly as heavily as the Conservatives.

Party leader Jagmeet Singh made a splash when he withdrew the NDP's support for the governing Liberals last September and at the start of 2025, there was only one point between the parties in the polls.

However, the NDP are now polling just 8.8% and are projected to win somewhere between three and 12 seats seats in parliament, putting them in real danger of being overtaken by Bloc Québécois as the third largest party in the House of Commons.

Bloc Québécois Betting Odds

Bloc Québécois's polling numbers have also taken a hit since the start of the year, down from a high of 8.5% in January to 5.5%, according to CBC News.

They retain very strong support in Quebec, where 78 seats are up for grabs, the second most of any region, and they could have a role in a minority government.

However, the Liberals are expected to win the most seats in Quebec and the way the polls have been trending, the gap between the two parties is likely to grow.

Who Will Win The 2025 Canadian Election?

All signs point towards a Liberals victory and it's looking increasingly likely they'll form a majority government.

Carney's party are given a 99% chance of winning the election, however, their chances of forming a majority government have dropped from 93% to 74% on some Canadian election sites.

A party needs to win 172 seats for an outright majority and the odds on a Liberal majority have drifted out to -175.

The Liberals are forecast to win close to 186 seats, according to 338Canada.com, while the Conservatives are expected to win in the region of 124 seats. 

Where Will the Canadian Election Be Won And Lost?

Regionally, the Liberals have a strong support base in the Atlantic, Quebec and Ontario, although their lead in the latter is down from double digits to eight points in the polls.

The Conservatives have sizeable advantages in the Prairies. Alberta and Saskatchewan remain Tory heartlands, while Manitoba is expected to stay blue, despite the Conservatives only being -132 favorites with Canadian election sites.

The one region that could go either way is British Columbia with the Liberals favorites in the Canadian election odds on betting apps but trailing the Conservatives in the opinion polls. 

BC could prove a key battleground should the election race continue to tighten in the lead up to Monday's vote.

How Does The Canadian Election Work?

Canadians employ a first past the post system, which tends to favour the bigger parties.

Canada’s House of Commons is made up of 343 seats, so a party needs 172 at least to govern as a majority.

Candidates stand for election in one of Canada’s 343 constituencies. These are based on population and can range from overseeing 116,000 people to just 36,800.

All odds and links are from Ontario sportsbooks, where it is legal to bet on the federal election. Rules for gambling on the election may be different in other provinces.